The Michigan Mobility 2045 Plan used scenario planning as a tool to determine potential outcomes for Michigan's transportation system.
Scenario planning is a process that evaluates the potential impacts of alternative policies, plans, and programs. Scenario planning provides valuable information for a state long-range transportation plan like system/asset performance, risks, and consequences to stakeholders and decision-makers, and is a useful exercise to explore and debate alternative futures and their trade-offs. Testing alternative scenarios against performance measures provides stakeholders and decision-makers information on how the multimodal transportation system will perform. Measures are based on changes in allocating resources, land use, demographics, and other factors.
Future Transportation Scenarios for Michigan
Five transportation scenarios were identified in the Michigan Mobility 2045 Phase 1 Scenario Planning Workshop through a collaborative process with stakeholders and Michigan Department of Transportation subject matter experts. Key observations from the workshop were (1) economic development and technology adoption are the two primary variables; and (2) rapid change is occurring due to technology.
Renaissance
Slow Tech nological Development
Rapid Econ omic Development
The Renaissance Scenario includes slow technology growth and rapid economic growth. Features of this scenario include:
- Population grows more quickly, especially in cities and towns.
- More freight and people are traveling within and among regions.
- Most work, school and many other activities are still in-person.
Tech Revolution
Rapid Tech nological Development
Rapid Econ omic Development
The Tech Revolution Scenario includes rapid technology growth and rapid economic growth. Features of this scenario include:
- Population grows quickly.
- CAVs are adopted fast.
- More urban transit has dynamic schedule and routes.
- Many activities are remote, so choice of region to live flexible.
Stagnation
Slow Tech nological Development
Slow Econ omic Development
The Stagnation Scenario includes slow technology growth and slow economic growth. Features of this scenario include:
- Population grows slowly and shifts toward cities and towns.
- There are fewer single-occupancy vehicles on roads.
- Many seniors age in place.
Gig Economy
Rapid Tech nological Development
Slow Econ omic Development
The Gig Economy Scenario includes rapid technology growth and slow economic growth. Features of this scenario include:
- Population grows slowly and shifts toward cities and towns.
- CAV use is mostly shared and concentrated in urban areas.
- Transportation access is unequal between urban and rural areas.